It is one of many tightest title races ever – A degree separates Arsenal, Liverpool and Metropolis… because the end line nears, we crunch the information to see who’ll win Premier League’s Recreation of Thrones TERMAN WEBSITE

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Ten video games. Three groups. One level. Not often has a Premier League title race been tighter than this as Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester Metropolis battle it out for glory.

The final time solely a degree separated the highest three so late within the season it was 10 years in the past and Steven Gerrard slipped and Metropolis snatched the crown by two factors.

That is the fifth time it’s occurred within the historical past of the 20-team Premier League.

Will present king Pep Guardiola make it 4 titles in a row? Will his protege Mikel Arteta finish Arsenal’s 20-year wait to be champions once more? Or will Jurgen Klopp safe the proper curtain name on his sensational time at Liverpool earlier than he takes his closing bow?

Mail Sport dives into the numbers to find who will recover from the road and who will fall brief.

Premier League title race is shaping up to be one of the closest ever with ten games remaining

Premier League title race is shaping as much as be one of many closest ever with ten video games remaining

ARSENAL

ATTACK

Arsenal, bear in mind, needed to signal a striker. They couldn’t simply depend on Gabriel Jesus or new signing Kai Havertz as a result of he was garbage. But right here they’re, highest scorers within the division. It’s not solely that which makes Arsenal so harmful. It’s that they rating all of the targets. Arsenal have probably the most targets from set performs (19), probably the most headed targets (16), probably the most gamers to attain no less than 5 (7) and have the closest distinction between targets with their left (25) and proper (26) foot. They’ll get you one way or the other.

DEFENCE

It’s not the assault that’s been key. Arsenal have the perfect defence — by a mile. They face the fewest photographs heading in the right direction (2.5) per recreation, hold probably the most clear sheets (11), have conceded the fewest targets (24) and their Anticipated Objectives conceded is eight fewer than anybody else. Final season, they solely conceded three fewer than Brentford. Having William Saliba match all season and Declan Rice in entrance of him has been essential.

Arsenal have recruited well and thanks to the likes of Declan Rice have been solid both defensively and going forward

Arsenal have recruited properly and due to the likes of Declan Rice have been stable each defensively and going ahead

MANAGER

Mikel Arteta’s file in opposition to his title rivals is the most important marker of how far he’s come. He misplaced 10 of his first 13 video games in opposition to Liverpool and Metropolis, together with his first six in opposition to mentor Pep Guardiola. This season, Arsenal haven’t misplaced a league recreation to any Huge Six membership.

VERDICT

Arsenal are the perfect group. They’ve scored probably the most targets and conceded the fewest. Their Anticipated Aim distinction per recreation is the perfect within the division when, for the final seven seasons, it’s been Man Metropolis. Not anymore. 

There’s a however, although. When the desk is so tight, there’s no room for slip ups. Arsenal’s run-in is the hardest, particularly away from dwelling. They nonetheless need to go to Metropolis, Tottenham and Manchester United. All their away video games are in opposition to groups within the high 10. In the event that they get it accomplished with these away fixtures, they certain as hell deserve it.

BOOKMAKERS ODDS

5/2 third favourites

But the Gunners must conquer a seriously challenging run-in if they are to secure a first title in two decades

However the Gunners should conquer a significantly difficult run-in if they’re to safe a primary title in 20 years

LIVERPOOL

ATTACK

Two harmful issues occurred without delay: Mo Salah returned from damage and Darwin Nunez came upon the place the web is. Since Boxing Day, solely two gamers (min 250mins) can boast an xG per PL recreation larger than one: Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah. And, like all nice groups, they by no means know when they’re crushed. 

No aspect has scored extra targets within the final quarter-hour of video games (24) which have seen them earn 13 factors from dropping positions within the latter phases of video games. Liverpool have trailed in 13 video games this season. They’ve misplaced twice.

Jurgen Klopp has put his side on course for a fairytale ending in his final season as Liverpool boss

Jurgen Klopp has put his aspect on target for a fairytale ending in his closing season as Liverpool boss

DEFENCE 

Like Arsenal, you get so distracted by the assault, it’s simple to overlook the stable foundations it’s constructed upon. Liverpool have conceded 26 targets. At this stage final season, they’d let in 33. A lot is all the way down to Virgil van Dijk’s return to his imperious finest. Not a single error resulting in a shot or targets, and dribbled previous solely twice.

MANAGER

Klopp’s not simply stirred the soul of the Kop along with his departure, he has the magic contact along with his tactical tweaks too: no aspect has extra targets and assists by subs than Liverpool this season (22). 

The return of Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez's form in front of goal will be vital for the Reds

The return of Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez’s kind in entrance of purpose might be important for the Reds

VERDICT

For some, it’s a fairytale written within the stars. Sure forces of destiny, like these, are too robust to beat. A title in Klopp’s closing season in entrance of the followers is just meant to be. For these much less romantic, Liverpool have two of probably the most potent attackers within the league, the perfect centre-back on the planet and the simplest run-in. 

BOOKMAKERS ODDS: 11/5 second favourites

MANCHESTER CITY

ATTACK

Metropolis have Erling Haaland. That helps. But we’re seeing faults in his circuitry. He’s failed to attain in seven of his final 10 PL video games for the primary time. Metropolis are seven targets down from final season. 

When Haaland accounts for 30 per cent of your targets, probably the most apart from Solanke at Bournemouth and Bowen at West Ham, that may be an issue. Final season, although, it was nearer to 40 per cent so no less than Pep is discovering targets from different gamers like Phil Foden.

Despite still topping the scoring charts Erling Haaland is undergoing a rough patch at a bad time

Regardless of nonetheless topping the scoring charts Erling Haaland is present process a tough patch at a nasty time

DEFENCE

Likewise, the Pep defensive machine is spluttering. Metropolis are transport a purpose a recreation for the primary time since Guardiola’s first season. They’re going through extra photographs per recreation (8.3) than ever below him. They’ve dropped 10 factors from profitable positions this season and 5 of them have come within the final quarter-hour of video games. For as soon as, they don’t really feel fairly so untouchable.

MANAGER

It’s unimaginable how he does it. 12 months after yr Guardiola instils a relentless want to win many times. In terms of the crunch, that mentality counts for lots. 

VERDICT

For all of the considerations in regards to the cracks, Metropolis stay only a level behind. Their solely Huge Six away journey left is Spurs. Their closing few dwelling video games are in opposition to groups they will crush. They’ve the know-how. That’s why they’re nonetheless bookies’ favourites. The Arsenal recreation is big. 

But City still have a wealth of elite talent to rely upon and have an undeniable winners' mentality

However Metropolis nonetheless have a wealth of elite expertise to rely on and have an simple winners’ mentality

BOOKMAKERS ODDS

11/10 favourites 

THE MAN WHO WON IT: CHRIS SUTTON

I Keep in mind we have been eight factors away from Man United with six video games to go — however they stored placing the strain on. 

We didn’t have nice expertise other than Kenny Dalglish as supervisor. We have been all in our early to mid-20s and I do suppose our kind in direction of the tip of the season — after we had been blowing groups away within the first half of it — dipped as a result of perhaps they wisened as much as us. 

It turned about resilience and simply discovering a option to win and we did that. We beat Everton, a extremely aggressive aspect who have been in a relegation battle, and that was all the time going to be a tricky recreation there. 

Then we went to QPR, I scored and we beat them, and we just about thought that might be it. The subsequent recreation was at Leeds and so they equalised within the final minute. Then we have been at dwelling in opposition to Man Metropolis and so they have been within the relegation zone. 

However we obtained nervy. They ended up beating us — and we had the perfect dwelling kind within the division that season. No one noticed that coming. 

With 4 video games to go it was about sticking to our beliefs. We beat Crystal Palace subsequent, Kevin Gallacher scoring, and it was comfy sufficient. Then we misplaced to West Ham away, I misplaced Marc Rieper on a nook and he scored. Now it’s two video games to go and actually tight. 

We weren’t the prettiest group however efficient. We used the vast gamers, we may very well be direct and we performed to our strengths with Alan Shearer and myself up high. We have been a practical, organised group and our mindset or ways didn’t change. I don’t suppose we ever stopped believing we may win it. 

While you lose a recreation it’s essential to bounce again and we did that — twice. It was about staying forward as we have been being hunted down. Kenny was the fixed for us. He was the man who needed to maintain his nerve and he by no means obtained too excited or too down. He was all the time fairly pragmatic and all the time giving us confidence. 

He backed us to the hilt. We had a wobble and that’s once we wanted him. It was about discovering a option to win when not at your finest, and we did that. This season, Manchester Metropolis haven’t been at their finest both. 

Liverpool have discovered a option to win when injury-ravaged and Arsenal have hit their stride after a gradual begin. It’s a dash to the end 

Chris Sutton scored 15 times as Blackburn relied on Sir Kenny Dalglish's experience to secure Premier League glory

Chris Sutton scored 15 occasions as Blackburn relied on Sir Kenny Dalglish’s expertise to safe Premier League glory

THE MAN WHO CAME CLOSE: DANNY MURPHY

I don’t suppose we actually believed we may win it. We stated the appropriate issues, we have been assured however we lacked that actual perception in our hearts to recover from the road.  

We by no means felt below that a lot strain. There wasn’t a lot expectation round us. We hadn’t been within the state of affairs earlier than so didn’t chat an excessive amount of about profitable it. We simply obtained on with it. 

The strain of being in a title race wasn’t as intense as it’s now. There wasn’t the relentless protection. There wasn’t the social media, all of the podcasts, the fixed chat analysing each step of the way in which. There weren’t the identical outdoors influences. It will be a lot tougher to change off from it now. 

I nonetheless liked watching the opposite video games and searching on the fixture lists. I used to be nonetheless engrossed in all of it. I liked watching Arsenal and Manchester United play and hoping they might lose. 

Danny Murphy was an integral part of Gerard Houllier's Liverpool side in the 2001-02 campaign

Danny Murphy was an integral a part of Gerard Houllier’s Liverpool aspect within the 2001-02 marketing campaign

After all we wished to win it however we additionally felt, if we didn’t, that we have been nonetheless transferring in the appropriate course. If we didn’t win it this season, we’d simply win it subsequent season. 

We needed to take care of dropping our supervisor Gerard Houllier to sick well being for a piece of the season too. Phil Thompson by no means will get sufficient credit score for the job he did throughout that spell to maintain us on observe. 

We began the season poorly with defeats by Bolton and Aston Villa and, in the long run, that price us. We additionally felt aggrieved solely getting a degree at Arsenal in January however we nonetheless went toe-to-toe with them even when we have been enjoying catch-up. 

What killed us was dropping at Tottenham with three video games to go. We blew it at White Hart Lane. We knew coming off the pitch that we messed it up. We had a nasty day and Spurs performed properly. 

The dressing room was crammed with disappointment. It was so quiet. I bear in mind the sensation of acceptance. It was accomplished. It was gone. 

A poor spell around Christmas saw the Reds ultimately finish second, seven points behind Arsenal

A poor spell round Christmas noticed the Reds in the end end second, seven factors behind Arsenal 

If we’d obtained a outcome there we may have put actual strain on Arsenal who needed to go to Outdated Trafford. A special outcome there and it might need gone to the ultimate day. 

Because it was, the truth kicked in that the dream was over. The identical may occur this season. It’s so tight. There are going to be moments when Arsenal, Liverpool or Man Metropolis may really feel they’ve blown it. And like us, it may very well be Spurs who’ve an enormous say. 

They nonetheless have all three to play and have proven already they will trigger them issues. They’ve taken factors off all three this season. Not like for us, although, the strain is on. 

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