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With most groups solely having 10 video games left within the 2023-24 Premier League season, each single facet nonetheless has one thing to struggle for, with the battles on the high and backside of the desk balancing delicately on a knife-edge.
Arsenal presently cleared the path on the high of the Premier League desk, however solely by advantage of a superior purpose distinction to Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester Metropolis are just one level again from each.
Equally, Luton’s late equaliser at dwelling to Nottingham Forest on Saturday means they’re inside three factors of each the Difficult Bushes and Everton within the battle to beat the drop on the foot of the standings.
And as if that wasn’t sufficient, Tottenham and Aston Villa are separated by solely two factors within the battle for fourth place, whereas the subsequent six groups are break up by 10 factors as they race to qualify for both the Europa League or Convention League.
There may be nonetheless a lot to play for throughout the board, so the ultimate 10 video games may have a lot driving on them, however who faces the hardest struggle on the tail finish of the marketing campaign? Right here Mail Sport presents the findings from Opta’s supercomputer.
Arsenal are presently in high spot by advantage of their superior purpose distinction over Liverpool
Manchester Metropolis want to make historical past with a fourth successive Premier League crown
Manchester United are within the battle for fourth however are shedding floor quick to Tottenham and Aston Villa
The supercomputer has attributed each crew a ranking between 0-100 to then assign a problem worth to every facet in a option to quantify how arduous an opponent they may be, eg Manchester Metropolis might be a lot nearer to 100 than Burnley as they’re – in all probability – the perfect crew on this planet.
The typical problem ranking from each crew in a membership’s remaining run of fixtures is then taken, with the numbers then ranked to indicate who faces the trickiest spell of video games on paper.
By way of the title race, it will seem that Arsenal are trying on the steeper problem compared to fellow suitors for the crown Metropolis and Liverpool.
The Gunners have clashes with Chelsea (H), Man Metropolis (A), Aston Villa (H), Tottenham (A) and Man United (A) nonetheless to come back earlier than ending the season at dwelling to a doubtlessly relegation-threatened Everton to shut off the marketing campaign. These video games earn them a median problem ranking of 88.5 of a possible 100 – the fifth-highest general.
Pep Guardiola’s facet in the meantime are in twelfth, with a median problem of 87.3 because of video games in opposition to Arsenal (H), Villa (H) and Spurs (A), with Liverpool down in 14th (86.6) and can tackle United (A), Spurs (H) and Villa (A) earlier than the top of the season.
Whereas any recreation in England’s top-flight can see upsets thrown up and shock outcomes, it will on paper seem that Liverpool are in the perfect place heading into the ultimate straights.
Simply behind these three is an equally fierce struggle for the highest 4, and it seems as if Aston Villa would do very properly to carry onto their factors benefit come the top of the marketing campaign.
Unai Emery’s facet have the second-hardest general run-in in response to the numbers, with journeys to Metropolis and Arsenal and residential clashes with Chelsea and Liverpool in addition to a go to to the Amex to tackle Brighton.
Arteta’s crew are taking a look at a troublesome remaining 10 video games if they’re to carry onto high place
Liverpool have the simplest run-in of the three title-chasers in response to Opta’s supercomputer
Manchester Metropolis have a monumental conflict with Arsenal at dwelling to come back in two weeks’ time
Tottenham do nonetheless have journeys to Newcastle and Liverpool however may have dwelling benefit within the north London derby in opposition to Arsenal and Metropolis, whereas United’s problem ranking is the bottom of the three seeking to make the highest 4.
Chelsea and Tottenham each have 11 video games to play – their postponed assembly elate final month month moved as a result of Carabao Cup – nevertheless Opta haven’t included this recreation within the calculations, though it’s one other alternative for each side to select up factors.
The Blues really come off fairly properly from the rankings, in addition to the Magpies, with each under-performers for 2023-24 taking a look at extra straight-forward conclusions to making an attempt campaigns.
Chelsea are ranked simply 18th, their sternest assessments Arsenal (A), United (H) and journeys to Brighton and Villa, whereas Newcastle are in nineteenth with clashes in opposition to Tottenham (H), Man United (A) and Brighton (H).
Chelsea have a comparatively straightforward run-in – the 18th hardest within the league
Each groups additionally face matches with Sheffield United and Burnley of their remaining 10, the 2 groups stranded on the foot of the desk, and subsequently doubtlessly the better video games of the entire marketing campaign.
Away from the title race and battle for Champions League qualification, the crew that really has the toughest fixtures is Brighton, who’ve fallen a way in need of their large exploits final time period.
The Seagulls’ final 10 video games have been given a ranking of 89.9 as they’ll tackle Metropolis (H), Liverpool (A) and Arsenal (H) of their subsequent 4 video games alone, earlier than clashes with Chelsea (H), Villa (H), Newcastle (A) and United (H) of their remaining 5.
However not far behind them are Luton, who look to have a impossible struggle to beat the drop on their arms with a median problem ranking of 88.4 placing them simply behind the Gunners.
Burnley and Sheffield United would each must spring unimaginable shock comebacks with a purpose to be in with a shout of survival, regardless of their run-ins rating fifteenth and eleventh respectively, and are presently 5 and eight factors adrift of even Luton.
The Hatters have fights with relegation rivals Forest – a recreation they drew on Saturday with the information printed earlier than that recreation – and Everton (H) and Brentford (H) in addition to conferences with Spurs, Metropolis and Arsenal all on the highway.
Aston Villa are presently in fourth spot however have the hardest run-in of every of the three sides nonetheless in competition for his or her place
Burnley secured a win over Brentford however will face a really stern take a look at if they’re to remain up
Rob Edwards’ Luton facet have the sixth-hardest run-in having already drawn one in every of their best fixtures (1-1 vs Forest on Saturday)
Forest and Everton each have a lot simpler run-ins (seventeenth and sixteenth respectively), whereas Brentford have the simplest of all (twentieth) with a ranking of simply 85.2 regardless of dates with United (H), Brighton (H), Villa (A) and Newcastle (H).
Crystal Palace are presently seven away from Luton, however do have the hardest run-in of any facet within the backside half of the league, and with journeys to Newcastle, Man Metropolis, Aston Villa and Man United – on high of the go to of Liverpool – may see them drawn ever nearer to that dog-fight under them.
As such, with a fiendish run-in themselves and their rivals getting off comparatively simply, issues are starting to look even tighter for the Hatters.
There may be the small matter of a possible factors deduction hanging over Forest’s head which might, in fact, play into Luton’s arms, however there isn’t a certainty that that will even come into play, and even be carried out earlier than the top of the season.
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